What are the scenarios?

The Transformative Planning by Scenarios approach is a creative and constructive way for actors from different areas and sectors to co-create shared histories regarding possible futures. This is one way to overcome complex and polarized situations.

Scenarios are stories about what could happen with Bogotá in the future, and the key is the word “could”. This is not about predicting what is going to happen with the city, because there is no single scenario, and it is not what we want to happen either. They are not plans, aspirations or proposals - they are possibilities. Building scenarios is an exercise that involves detaching oneself from desires and responses, and looking beyond forecasts and projections. The idea is much simpler: identifying possible futures of Bogotá in which the different visions of society converge.

The scenarios of Bogotá 2025 were created by a team of people from the most diverse sectors: entrepreneurs, public sector, social organizations, the media, multilateral agencies, young people and universities. In short, we have a microcosm of Bogotá’s society represented on the scenarios team.

The crab walk

Bogotá may walk into the future like crabs do. Crabs move sideways, they are slow and clumsy, and they also have their claws ready to defend themselves. This scenario represents the conflict of interest between the different sectors of society and the lack of agreements, particularly considering long-term issues.

paso cangrejos

The idea is that, if everyone goes their own way, no one will meet their own objectives because each person will be obstructing the actions of others. That is why indifference and skepticism are the main characteristics of the city's erratic trajectory, taking steps forward and steps back.

So, for instance, the right infrastructure for public transportation is not built, traffic becomes even worse, as does pollution, etc. That does not mean that it will all be bad. We will continue to grow and very positive things will continue to occur, such as Bogotá’s central role in the Latin American cultural context.

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Flight of the geese

Bogotá may fly into the future like geese do. This scenario represents the possibility of going in the same direction, but alternating leadership. The goose at the front of the formation is the one that must struggle against the wind and, over time, gets tired. However, this is not a major issue because another goose takes over and the formation is preserved.

vuelo de gansos

In more concrete terms, what this metaphor means is the possibility of having a plural leadership that would be in the hands of the different sectors of society. In other words, if the widespread deception with the political directions continues, new forms of leadership may emerge that will empower citizens to take large-scale collective actions. This is thanks to the new technological alternatives in the fields of education, mobility and economy, among others.

Of course, tension will arise in the process, but in the end, the idea of this scenario is that the city's destination does not depend exclusively on the political power or that of traditional institutions.

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Beehive

Bogotá may work like a beehive. Bees are social animals and they work together in a very organized manner. This scenario is characterized by institutional leadership and the coordinated effort of all sectors of society.

panal de abejas

The idea is that, amidst the skepticism and the desire for a better city, institutional leaders may arise, abandoning the vices of traditional politics and gradually recovering people’s confidence in the public sector and giving rise to greater commitment on the part of inhabitants. In this scenario, there are three basic premises: that continuity between the different governments is indispensable, that inequity is the major problem of our time and that it is necessary to engage citizens in building the future of the city, because political power by itself is not enough. The beehive works because each member plays a role for the common good.

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Scenarios team

Adriana Gutiérrez
Directora Competitividad Bogotá Región
Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico

Alberto Merlano
Gerente
Empresa de Acueducto, Alcantarillado y Aseo de Bogotá ESP

Aura Amelia Abril
Directora
Fundamujer

Carlos Enrique Moreno
Presidente
Organización Corona

Consuelo Corredor
Investigadora y experta en temas de Equidad

Diana Avella
Directora
Colectivo Distrital de Mujeres Hip Hop

Diana Avella
Directora
Colectivo Distrital de Mujeres Hip Hop

Edgar Cataño
Director Nacional de Programa
ONU – Hábitat Colombia

Eduardo Pizano de Narváez
Presidente
Naturgas

Eduardo Villar Borrero
Presidente
Fundación Social

Ernesto Cortés
Editor Jefe
El Tiempo

Francisco Manrique
Presidente Consejo Directivo
Connect Bogotá Región

Gerardo Ardila Calderón
Secretario de Planeación
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Germán Sarmiento
Director
Cebras por la Vida

Héctor Hugo Álvarez
Director
Ecobarrios

Jaime Bueno Miranda
Alto Consejero Presidencial para la Competitividad y Proyectos Estratégicos
Presidencia de la República

Jeyffer Rentería, Don Popo
Director
Fundación Familia Ayara

Johanna Mahuth Tafur
Directora
Oficina de Sueños

Jorge Mario Díaz
Vicepresidente de Gobernanza
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

José Fernando Isaza
Miembro Consejo Directivo
Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano

Juan Carlos Ramírez
Director
Oficina de la CEPAL Bogotá

Juan David Ángel
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Leonidas López
Rector
Universidad Minuto de Dios

Luis Guillermo Plata
Director
ProBogotá

Susana Muhamad González
Secretaria de Ambiente
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Martha Lucía Zamora
Secretaria General
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Nohra Padilla
Directora
Organización de Recicladores

Paola Portilla
Coordinadora General
Todos por la Educación

Paul Bromberg
Experto
Gobierno y Desarrollo Urbano

Ramiro Osorio
Director
Teatro Mayor Julio Mario Santo Domingo

Ricardo Bonilla
Secretario de Hacienda
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Ricardo Enrique Díaz
Gerente
Ladrillera Helios S.A.

Soraya Montoya
Directora
Fundación Saldarriaga Concha

Ximena Tapias
Presidente
Coalición Colombiana de Industrias Creativas y de Contenidos

People interviewed

Alberto Velásquez
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Álvaro Cruz Vargas
Gobernador
Gobernación de Cundinamarca

Ángela Escallón Emiliani
Directora
Fundación Corona

Angelino Garzón
Exvicepresidente
Presidencia de la República

Antonio Navarro Wolff
Senador
Senado de la República

Carlos Andrés Daza Bernal
Alcalde
Alcaldía de Fusagasugá

Enrique Peñalosa Londoño
Exalcalde
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Francisco Durán
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Hollman Felipe Morris Rincón
Exgerente
Canal Capital

Jaime Mantilla
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Jaime Ortiz Mariño
Expresidente
Sociedad de Mejoras y Ornato Bogotá

Jorge Enrique Acevedo Bohórquez
Director
Instituto Ser de Investigación

Jorge Riaño
Director
Casa de la Cultura Hunza – Suba

José Antonio Vargas Lleras
Presidente
Codensa

José Alejandro Cortés
Presidente
Grupo Bolívar

José Blackburn Cortés
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Juan Diego Trujillo
Miembro Junta Directiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Juan Esteban Orrego Calle
Director
Fenalco Bogotá

Luis Fernando Andrade Moreno
Director
Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura

Marco Tulio Sánchez Gómez
Alcalde
Alcaldía de Zipaquirá

Martha Cecilia Moreno Mesa
Gerente Regional
Camacol Bogotá y Cundinamarca

Mariana Ríos Naranjo
Líder estudiantil
Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Mauricio Reina Echeverri
Investigador
Fedesarrollo

Mónica de Greiff 
Presidenta ejecutiva
Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá

Óscar Sánchez Jaramillo
Secretario de Educación
Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá

Rosario Córdoba
Presidente
Consejo Privado de Competitividad

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